Bitcoin's 2024 January: Surge, Dip, and SEC Approvals

Last week, Bitcoin's price substantially declined, marking an intraday low at $41,454. This sudden drop in value has prompted market analysts to investigate the cause of this downturn. Many experts assert that the recent sharp decrease in Bitcoin's value is intricately tied to the uncertainty and speculation surrounding the SEC's forthcoming decisions on multiple ETF proposals.

Bitcoin's Journey in 2024 So Far

Bitcoin's journey in early 2024 began with an impressive surge, boasting an 8% increase, pushing it beyond the critical $45,000 threshold. However, the celebration was short-lived as BTC retraced to $41,800 on Wednesday morning, reflecting a 5.6% decline within 24 hours. This ripple effect spread across the broader digital asset market, which experienced a 6.7% decrease overall, according to CoinMarketCap.

The heightened volatility comes when the cryptoasset community eagerly awaits the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decision regarding the potential approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by mid-January. The anticipation surrounding this decision has added a layer of sensitivity to the market, with the recent dip catching many participants off guard.

A research report from Matrixport, a digital asset investment services provider, contributes to the market's uncertainty, predicting a potential rejection of several ETF applications before the SEC. Markus Thielen, CEO and Head of Research at Matrixport, expressed scepticism, stating that all applications fall short of a critical requirement for SEC approval. Thielen cites the dominance of Democrats in the commission's leadership and SEC Chair Gary Gensler's cautious stance on digital currencies.

However, despite the dip, traders on Polymarket, a decentralised prediction platform, maintain optimism about the SEC approving at least one Bitcoin ETF by January 15. The platform indicates an 83% probability for this anticipated event, slightly down from 89% on the previous day.

CryptoQuant's Data Foretold Bitcoin Price Decline

In addition, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant accurately predicted Bitcoin's recent price drop in its December 28 report. The foresight relied on key on-chain metrics, including significant unrealised gains held by short-term Bitcoin holders, surpassing 32%. Notably, this level of unrealised profit margin has historically foreshadowed price corrections. 

The data also highlighted rising BTC inflows into spot exchanges, increased selling pressure from miners moving BTC to exchanges, and a positive 14-day simple moving average, indicating higher BTC inflows than outflows in the new year.

The Upcoming Bitcoin Halving Event

On a positive note, many analysts forecast that the upcoming Bitcoin halving event will boost the market. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have proven pivotal in reducing the rate at which new coins are generated, often leading to increased scarcity and heightened market demand. This inherent scarcity drives upward price momentum, offering a potential respite from recent uncertainties. 

As the digital asset community navigates through the complexities of early 2024, the Bitcoin halving emerges as a beacon of hope for renewed market vigour.

XEROF's Response to Bitcoin's Recent Price Drop

In response to Bitcoin's recent price drop, Marc Taverner, CEO and co-founder of XEROF, addressed the current market conditions. Emphasising the significance of the SEC's imminent decision on ETF applications, stating,

"All eyes are currently on the SEC and their impending decision on the ETF applications. The outcome will undoubtedly profoundly impact the cryptoasset ecosystem, potentially opening the door for broader market participation. In the meantime, we advise investors to stay vigilant and well-informed to navigate these fluctuations successfully."

Learn More About Bitcoin

Amidst Bitcoin's recent decline to $41,454, triggered by speculation around the SEC's ETF decisions, the market faces heightened sensitivity. Matrixport's report on potential ETF rejections adds to market uncertainty. However, this is countered by Polymarket traders' optimism, with an 83% probability of an ETF approval by January 15. Regardless of the pullback's cause—quantitative, qualitative, or speculative—investors are advised to remain vigilant.

As the digital asset community recovers from a bumpy start to 2024, XEROF remains dedicated to fostering a secure and thriving blockchain ecosystem. If you are interested in diversifying your portfolio to include Bitcoin, contact us to arrange a meeting.


XEROF is a Swiss-licensed FinTech specialising in cryptoassets. Our Tier 1 banking network allows clients to seamlessly navigate crypto and fiat transactions to manage investments, treasury, and settle third party expenses.

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